Objective
The simulation tool allows the User to simulate, starting from a given year, the impact of a given energy Policy Scenario with respect to a Reference Scenario .
To this end we define:
The reference year, as the year from which starts the impact simulation exercise
The reference scenario, as the energy demand trend taking into account the main energy consumption drivers (i.e. the households growth rate) and the (residual) impact of the energy saving measures issued before the reference year
The policy scenario, as the energy demand development taking into account additional energy saving measures issued (or even planned) after the reference year.
The Impact Evaluation of Policies and Measures
The impact evaluation can be carried out on both
Backcasting (1990-2000)
and
Forecasting (2000 – 2025)
exercises
Impact simulation methodology
General data set up
Measures analysis and parametrisation
Run and discussion of results
Possible further measures parametrisation and data calibration
Data requirement and set up
For the reference year
Dwelling Stock and Dwelling unitary energy consumption by age and fuel;
Hot sanitary water devices stock and unitary energy consumption by fuel
Appliances data (stock and energy consumption of the stock)
Unitary emission coefficients by energy source
Fuel mix and total primary energy consumption of the national electricity production
Primary electricity conversion coefficient (toe/kWh)
Fuel mix and total primary energy for the district heating heat production
Energy efficiency of the district heating system
Time series
Annual number of household
Annual number of new individual and collective dwelling (from the date of the first building code measure)
Reference Forecast figures
Total household electricity consumption growth rate (PRIMES)
Electricity production fuel mix (WETO)
District heating fuel mix (WETO)
Household growth rate (WETO)
Technical parameters
Stock average and new heating system efficiencies
Stock average insulation parameters
Equipment costs (boilers, insulation works, new equipments, appliances, etc.)
Other minor data as equipment life span, interest rates, etc.
National Data or Mure default values
Impact simulation methodology:
Measures analysis and parametrisation
Grouping the measures by homogeneous category (financial, fiscal, informative, etc.)
Sorting the measures by issuing date
Setting of the simulation criteria (measures parameterisation):
Selection of the type of intervention to be simulated (insulation, boiler substitution, …)
Simulation of the measure relative gain (% saving)
Definition of the measures penetration rate (i.e. the rate of penetration in the involved dwelling stock)
Impact simulation methodology:
Main simulation criteria
The impact of measure are simulated as follow:
For insulation we take into consideration the parameters suggested by the regulating laws ;
For boiler substitution, we apply a boilers renewal rate according to the following criteria:18 years for the boilers that serves more than three dwellings,
15 years for the others boilers
For generic intervention on the heating system, including burner substitution, device controls, individual metering, etc, we apply a gain of 12% average unless better specified in the measures ;
Finally we assume that the fiscal and tariffs measures accelerate the penetration rates of the financial and other similar measures
Two specific cases:
The gain of the building codes for the new dwellings is provided by the ratio between the new U (kWh/m2) values and the average U values of the buildings built under the previous build code. The involved stock is obviously the number of new dwellings built in the analysed period.
The gain and penetration rates of the measures concerning the appliances labelling measures (for the cold and washing machines) is simulated on the basis of the findings of the E-GRIDS project (www.e-grids.com)
MURE HOUSEHOLD OUTPUT
Global primary energy consumption per year (bakcasting or forecasting)
Total primary energy consumption by fuel per year
Electricity Production Mix per year
Emissions per year
Economic assessment
